What preseason AP football rankings really predict for Sooners and Cowboys
Dive into the history and see how OU, OSU ultimately fare compared to the first poll.
Here's a sign that the college football season is upon us: the Associated Press preseason poll is out.
It was released Tuesday. Notable rankings for folks in our neck of the woods include Georgia at No. 1 (obviously, the highest-ranked SEC team), Utah at No. 12 (the highest-ranked Big 12 team), Oklahoma at No. 16 and Oklahoma State at No. 17.Â
There are all sorts of fun factoids about the preseason poll, too.
^ Only four leagues are represented. Power Four and Notre Dame only, though Boise State and several other Group of Five teams landed in the others-receiving-votes pool.
^ Michigan is ranked ninth, the lowest preseason ranking for a defending national champ since 2011 when Auburn was ranked 23rd.
^ The SEC has nine teams in the top 25.
^ The Big 12 has five.
Dive into it, football fans. It'll get your juices flowing.
But as I was relishing in this football-is-almost-here sign, I started to wonder — what kind of sign is the poll to our local squads? What kind of harbinger is it? Good? Bad? Did the Sooners and the Cowboys exceed expectations or fall below them?
I decided to look at the past decade, which is a nice round number, but it also puts our starting point at 2014, the same year the College Football Playoff expanded to four teams.
(Four teams. How quaint.)
Here's a year-by-year look at OU with the Sooners' preseason ranking first, followed by their ranking in the final AP poll. RV means receiving votes while NR means not ranked:
2014: 4, RV
2015: 19, 5
2016: 3, 5
2017: 7, 3
2018: 7, 4
2019: 4, 7
2020: 5, 6
2021: 2, 10
2022: 9, NR
2023: 20, 15
And here's a look at OSU:
2014: RV, NR
2015: RV, 20
2016: 21, 11
2017: 10, 14
2018: RV, RV
2019: RV, NR
2020: 15, 20
2021: RV, 7
2022: 12, NR
2023: NR, 16
So what are we to make of this?Â
When it comes to the Sooners, the AP preseason poll is generally a pretty good gauge of the kind of season OU will have. Six times in the past decade, the preseason pollsters have been within five spots of where the Sooners finished the season.
That's remarkable consistency.
Now, the pollsters missed badly on occassion with their preseason prognostications on OU. They had Brent Venables' first team in 2022 ranked in the top 10 before the season began, but that squad stumbled to a losing record once the bowls were over. Then again, the pollsters thought the 2015 team was a lower-tier top-25 team, but that bunch made the College Football Playoff with a walk-on quarterback who transferred from Texas Tech. Few suspected just how good Baker Mayfield would be in new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley's system.
This year's Sooner squad has its share of unknowns, too. New quarterback Jackson Arnold. New offensive coordinator Seth Littrell. New defensive coordinator (at least in title) Zac Alley. New conference, too.
So, maybe this is a year the preseason pollsters miss on the Sooners. But if it becomes another year in which OU finishes within five spots of where it started the season, I think a lot of Sooners would take that outcome. Could mean a finish as low as 21st, which wouldn't be great, but also wouldn't be an unmitigated disaster in the Sooners' inaugural SEC season. Could mean a finish as high as 11th, too, and that would likely come with a playoff spot.
When it comes to OSU, the AP preseason poll is much less accurate. Only twice in the past decade has the Cowboys’ preseason ranking been within five spots of their position in the final poll.
And the misses by the preseason pollsters have been both ways, for better and for worse.
In 2021 when the Cowboys came millimeters away from winning the Big 12 title and landing a spot in the playoff, they started that season only receiving votes in the preseason poll.Â
Then a year later when OSU was ranked 12th in the preseason poll, one of its highest preseason rankings ever, it sputtered to a not-ranked finish. After Spencer Sanders was injured, the Cowboys went from beating Texas to being embarrassed by Kansas State and Kansas in the next two games.
The preseason pollsters often have a tough time pegging OSU.
Maybe they came closer this season. After all, the pollsters put the Cowboys in virtually the same spot where they finished last season, 16th at the end of last year and 17th to start this one. It makes sense, too, since OSU returns much of the same roster as it had a year ago.Â
Perhaps the pollsters’ thinking is similar team, similar result.
But their track record ranking OSU sure suggests otherwise. Whatever these Cowboys do, history would suggest they will be vastly different than what the preseason poll indicates.Â
In the end, of course, the Cowboys and the Sooners will get to determine how right or wrong the pollsters were, and they’ll get to do so starting soon.
Very soon, according to the calendar.
That's the best sign of all.