Super regional predictions for the NCAA softball tournament: Here's my Eight for OKC

Who survives the Texas-Texas A&M showdown? The OU-Florida State rematch? The SEC face-off between Tennessee and Alabama?

Look at the list of regional winners, and you'd think the NCAA softball tournament is off to a ho-hum start.

Fourteen of the 16 regional hosts (and national seeds) won this past weekend and advanced to super regionals next weekend. Lots of chalk. And the two regional hosts who didn't survive — Louisiana and Arkansas — were bested by Power Five squads Baylor and Arizona.

Ho-hum?

Hardly.

Before we go any further, I want to say a quick but heartfelt thank you to everyone who already subscribed to this Substack. To all of my Founding Members and Paid Subscribers, a special thanks; you have supported me even though this is just a fledgling project, so your help is appreciated more than you can know. To anyone receiving this for the first time, I hope you'll continue to receive my emails and consider becoming a Paid Subscriber. I don't know where this endeavor will lead in my post-Sellout Crowd life, but let's find out together.

Now, back to the softball.

This past weekend had no shortage of drama. Extra innings. Late-game heroics. So before we get to our Eight for OKC, which will also serve as my super-regional predictions, let's rewind on some of the theatrics.

^ The biggest fireworks were in Columbia, Missouri. They started Friday when Omaha, seeded fourth in the regional, upended Missouri, the No. 7 overall seed. Omaha, the Summit League champ, won with a homer in the top of the ninth inning.

Then, darned if Omaha didn't score another big upset on Saturday, beating Washington.

After Missouri battled back through the loser's bracket, Omaha and Missouri met again Sunday. The Tigers found themselves down to their last two outs in the seventh inning, only to rally for five runs and force a winner-take-all game. 

The teams played 8 1/2 scoreless innings before, with two out (because of course there were), Missouri strung together a couple of hits and finally plated the game-winning run with a walk-off RBI single.

Tip of the cap to Omaha for a heck of a weekend.

But also, tip of the cap to Missouri, which avoided another devastating postseason loss at home to a mid-major. Back in 2021, James Madison went to Columbia and bested Missouri in a super regional that sent the Dukes to Oklahoma City and introduced Odicci Alexander to the world. But this time, Missouri avoided that cruel fate.

^ If Missouri's regional had the biggest fireworks, Georgia's regional was a close second. The Bulldogs lost the winner's bracket game on Saturday to Liberty, getting drubbed 7-3. That meant Georgia, the No. 11 overall seed, had to win later on Saturday, and then win twice on Sunday. That is no easy task.

Still, the Bulldogs looked up to it, manhandling Charlotte 5-0 on Saturday and whacking Liberty 13-5 in the first game Sunday. Sure seemed like Georgia was back in control.

But in the winner-take-all game Sunday was anything but under control much of the day for Georgia. The Bulldogs, a big-hitting team throughout the season, were scoreless through five innings, and even after managing a run in the sixth, they still trailed 2-1 in the bottom of the second. 

They were down to their final out when they got a game-tying RBI single on a first-pitch swing. The very next batter swung at the first pitch again, and the ball smacked off the centerfield wall, drove in the game-winning run and set off pandemonium in Athens.

^ Stanford, the overall No. 8 seed, had a couple of close calls, too. The Cardinal and the mighty NiJaree Canady struggled in their opener against St. Mary's, scratching out an 8-6 victory after letting a 7-0 lead slip away. Canady came out after starting the game, and the Gaels came back. She had to re-enter to save Stanford.

Then in the winner's bracket game on Friday, Stanford eeked out a 2-1 victory against Mississippi State.

Canady started both of those games, so she didn't start the regional final on Sunday — and Stanford got whacked, 8-1, by Cal State Fullerton. She pitched the elimination game, though, and Stanford survived 4-2.

It was all a reminder of how great Canady is, though we knew that from last season when she almost single-handedly powered Stanford to the Women's College World Series. 

But the regional also laid bare some serious warts for the Cardinal. Does it have any pitcher that can spell Canady even for an inning or two? And does it have enough offense to survive beyond regionals?

(There’s more to read below the video.)

Eight for OKC

Without further ado, let's dive into the predictions. All season, I've offered an occasional look at the eight teams I expected to make the Women's College World Series in Oklahoma City. And remember, the picks were made based on the teams I thought were best equipped to make the WCWS.

My last regular-season Eight for OKC was: OU, Texas, Tennessee, Duke, Stanford, OSU, UCLA and Texas A&M.

Now, of course, we have the pairings for the best-of-three super regionals, and as it turns out, all eight of the teams are still alive and only two of them are pitted against each other in super regionals, Texas and Texas A&M. That means seven of those teams in my final regular-season Eight for OKC could actually make OKC.

But do I think all of them will make it, taking into account the pairings and the recent results?

Let's see (with the national seedings in parenthesis):

^ (16) Texas A&M at (1) Texas: The Longhorns played like the overall top seed during regionals, winning their three games by an average of 8.0 runs. Great pitching. Lots of hitting. Frankly, the Aggies looked good in regionals, too, going undefeated like the Longhorns, but Texas is playing so well, winning two games in Austin will be a nearly impossible task for Texas A&M. Did we mention these two schools really don't like each other all that much? Should make for an entertaining series, but not a long one.

Texas in two games.

^ (15) Florida State at (2) OU: A matchup of the top two programs of the last five or six years. The Sooners have won the last three national titles, and twice, the Seminoles have been their opponent in the championship series at the WCWS. And in 2018, Florida State claimed its own national title. Six of the last seven crowns have been won by these two teams. Even though Florida State looked strong in its regional, OU looked even stronger, and the Sooners are a veteran squad while the Seminoles rely on lots of freshmen.

OU in two games.

^ (14) Alabama at (3) Tennessee: The Vols looked to have a bear of a regional when the bracket was announced, drawing a feisty Virginia team and a big-hitting Miami (Ohio) squad. But Tennessee rolled through the weekend, allowing no runs in three games. The Crimson Tide knows how tough it can be to score on the Vols; Alabama managed only one run in the teams' three-game SEC series earlier this season.

Tennessee in two games.

^ Baylor at (4) Florida: The Bears were one of only two unseeded teams to win a regional on the road, taking down Louisiana in Lafayette. The crowd there is always raucous, much like the Florida crowd in Gainesville. Baylor will have to contend with that as well as a Gator squad that rolled up 24 runs in its three regional victories. Florida has a big-time offense.

Florida in three games.

^ Arizona at (5) OSU: The Wildcats made their return to the NCAA Tournament after a rare absence last year with a road regional victory. The thing is, Arizona didn't have to go through the home team on regional final day. Yes, it bested Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday, but the Razorbacks were eliminated later in the day by Villanova. That left Arizona and Nova playing in a near-empty stadium on Sunday. No chance that Cowgirl Stadium will be near empty for super regionals this weekend. Quite the opposite. Arizona will have to contend with the OSU crowd and Lexi Kilfoyl. 

OSU in two games.

^ (11) Georgia at (6) UCLA: Before regionals, I thought this had a chance to be the most competitive super regional. But after Georgia's shaky regional performance, I don't quite know what to make of the Bulldogs. If they had played better in regionals, I'd have no problem picking them to go to Los Angeles and win. Now, that just doesn't seem likely.

UCLA in three games.

^ (10) Duke at (7) Missouri: Before the bracket was announced, Duke looked like a for-sure top-eight seed. Seeing the Blue Devils drop to No. 10 was a surprise. They lost only six games in the regular season and had a top-five RPI pretty much all season. After the way Duke dominated its regional and Missouri struggled through its regional, these seedings could've easily been flopped.

Duke in three games.

^ (9) LSU at (8) Stanford:

NiJaree Canady leading the Cardinal back to the WCWS seemed one of the foregone conclusions of this season. She was so dominant throughout the year that it was difficult to foresee Stanford losing to any team in two of three games because you figured the hard-throwing righty would pitch two of the games. But Stanford's offensive struggles have become more and more pronounced. LSU, which had its own offensive woes the second half of the season, seemed to break out of the slump a bit during regionals. But the question remains: can the Tigers get to Canady enough?

Stanford in three games.