Jackson Arnold might be the next Baker Mayfield, but even OU has had young first-time QB starters who've struggled
Even Caleb Williams had rough stretches.
NORMAN — Sign me up as a charter member of the Jackson Arnold Fan Club.
He's got the pedigree, the promise and the potential to be prodigious. He might become one of the best quarterbacks to ever play at Oklahoma.
Just maybe not this season.
Or at least not all the time.
As the Sooners prepare for their Friday night opener against Temple, there is much excitement about Arnold. Rightfully so. After all, Arnold had all the recruiting hype, and even though his start in the Alamo Bowl had its peaks and valleys, he is stepping into a position where wild success has become the norm.
It seems like every time the Sooners have broken in a new starting quarterback in recent memory, the path is the same. Immediate success. Continued excellence. Heisman Trophy consideration. Then when the time is right, NFL riches.
But here's the thing: unlike Arnold, most of those quarterbacks were college football veterans when they took over OU's top spot. Not all of them had been starters, but they had been around the college game for years.
Let's see. When Dillon Gabriel took over in 2022, it was his fourth year in college. Jalen Hurts (2019) and Kyler Murray (2018) were starting their fourth years, too. Baker Mayfield (2015) was beginning his third year. Same for Trevor Knight the year before, though he started five games during the 2013 season when he split the quarterback duties with Blake Bell, who had taken over that season in his fourth year.
The recent exceptions to all these veterans taking over the starting quarterback spot are Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams.
Truthfully, they share a lot of pre-OU similarities with Arnold. They were considered among the best, if not the best, quarterback in their recruiting class. Five-star players. Can't-miss prospects.
And while most Sooner fans see Rattler as a bust and Williams as a prodigy, their first years as starters were not all that different.
In the COVID-affected season of 2020 when Rattler took over as QB1, he threw for 3,031 yards, 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 11 games, completing 67.5% of his pass attempts.
His passer efficiency rating was 172.6, which ranks 69th in college football history.
For perspective, Rattler ranked ahead of Tim Tebow during his 2007 Heisman Trophy season (172.5), Alabama's Jalen Milroe last season (172.2) and Gabriel last season (172.0).
All told, Rattler, who was entering his second year of college football, had an impressive first season as a starter.
But he had his bad moments. Three interceptions in a loss at home to Kansas State. Completion percentages below 60% in narrow victories against TCU (59.1%) and Kansas (55.6%).
So it was with Williams, too.
Oh, many only remember the greatness when the true freshman took over as the starter after rallying OU to victory against Texas. And his season-ending stats were impressive. From the Texas game on, he threw for 1,810 yards, 21 touchdowns and four interceptions in eight games, completing 65.0% of his passes.
His season-ending passer rating: 169.6.
Williams also rushed for 381 yards and five touchdowns in those last eight games, averaging 5.1 yards a carry and 55.3 yards a game.
It was another splendid season as a first-year starter.
But Williams, too, had his meh moments.
Remember that 27-17 loss at Baylor? It's a game everyone remembers for Baylor fans prematurely storming the field and Lincoln Riley going berserk, so that makes it easy to forget Williams was bad that day. He went 9 of 18 for 142 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.
The next week wasn't much better, 8 of 18 for 87 yards (87 yards?!?!?), one touchdown and one interception in a narrow victory against Iowa State.
So, Williams wasn't always a world-beater.
But it was to be expected. He was young, and as talented as he was — and as often as he displayed that talent — Williams still struggled occasionally because that's what young starting quarterbacks do.
The narrative was similar for Rattler even though he was in his second year.
So it will likely be for Jackson Arnold.
"There's going to be challenges, at times, with anybody who has started one game and now they're the starter," Brent Venables admitted. "One game under your belt, there's going to be some moments where it looks like that. We'd be negligent if I didn't say that or naive if we didn't believe that."
Now, Sooner success on offense won't be all on Arnold's shoulders.
"Everybody else plays a part of that as well," Venables said. "What we ask people to do is important, that we find out what they can do ... and lean on that."
What does the offensive line do well? How can the tailbacks contribute best? Where do the biggest strengths lie with the pass catchers?
All of that will factor into how Arnold performs.
But the quarterback has an outsized influence on everything. Always has. Always will.
So it will be with Arnold.
"I love where I think Jackson can take this football team," Venables said.
I love it, too. I believe Arnold can be fantastic and will show flashes of that brilliance this season. Might only last a drive or two. Might last several games or more. Embrace those times, no matter how long they last, Sooner fans.
Because Arnold will have times when he looks like a first-year starting quarterback who hasn't been in college all that long.
Just remember, when that happens, it's not a reflection on where Jackson Arnold is going but merely where he is right now.