College football predictions? We've got 'em for OU, OSU, the SEC and the Big 12

Berry's bullish on the Sooners while I like what the Cowboys could do.

College football season is no longer around the corner. 

It is here. 

Practices start this week, so it's time to get serious about how good (or bad!)OU and OSU will be this season. That means predictions. 

No one better to do that with than my buddy and Tulsa World columnist Berry Tramel.

Coming up on The Jenni Carlson Show.

Sign up for my newsletter here, and you can find all my content at Substack and YouTube: YouTube.com/@Jenni-Carlson

Episode highlights

0:52: Does it feel like football season?

1:50: Will OSU finish higher or lower than third, the spot where the Cowboys are picked in the Big 12 preseason poll?

3:22: What about OU, picked to finish eighth in the SEC? Higher or lower?

5:20: Who wins the Big 12 this season?

8:20: What about the SEC?

10:15: MVP at OU?

12:42: Who plays the biggest role among the Sooner newcomers?

15:00: OU’s most important game this season?

18:20: MVP at OSU?

20:10: Best newcomer for the Cowboys?

23:03: Most important game for OSU this year?

25:35: OU’s record?

27:38: OSU’s record?

Producer: Jacquelyn Musgrove

Creative Director: Michael Lane

Transcript

Jenni: Well, BT, does it feel like football season?

Berry: No, it's going to have to get a little bit cooler to feel like football season. We've had a summer where we had two or three days in Vegas, 120 degrees, and four days in Dallas, 100 degrees and a little bit of a break here, but it's coming back. But you know what? The excitement of this season is building a lot. The newness of the season, Big 12, SEC. So, you can sense it's coming, but I would like a little hint of a little coolness in the air.

Jenni: We do live in Oklahoma though, so you know, we're aware that it's probably going to be hot for a little while longer. But practices are getting started this week. August is here, so it's time to get serious about predictions. We obviously aren't going to see any games for a while, but we can sure talk about what we think is going to happen. 

Let's start with this, BT. Preseason polls for the conferences are out. Big 12 has been out a while, SEC a little less so. Let's go a little over-under and start with OSU picked third in the Big 12. Are you going higher or lower for the Cowboys?

Berry: Well, I think I'll go higher. Think I'll go second. It's so jumbled with OSU, KU, K-State, Utah and perhaps Arizona. I think Kansas has the easiest schedule. The rest of the schedules are pretty even, but I like how it sets up for the Cowboys in terms of a veteran squad. The big games are early. Should be ready to go. They've got the back-to-back, Utah in Stillwater and at K-State. So I think OSU navigates that pretty well. I think 7-2 probably gets you into the Big 12 title game. I'll go OSU second.

Jenni: Yeah, I'm going to go higher as well. I just think that that veteran experience they have is, it's so fleeting in college football today to have that many guys that have played together that much. Obviously, they’ve got to stay healthy. Ollie Gordon is going to be a huge part of what they do. He's got to stay healthy. But as long as you don't have any huge unexpected setbacks, I definitely can see them being a team that gets to that championship game. Who knows what happens then? Maybe we can talk about that here in a second. 

But what about OU? Picked eighth in the SEC preseason poll. You go on higher or lower for the Sooners?

Berry: Well, I'll go higher, but I can understand eighth. 

Jenni: I can, too.

Berry: I mean, that schedule is so brutal. You know, the Sooners have to play six SEC teams that are going to be ranked in the top 15 in the preseason poll. That's schedule brutality. And beyond that, one of the two games outside of that is at Auburn. I think Auburn is perhaps the most underrated team in the league.

They did the Sooners no favors, but I think this is a really good Oklahoma football team. I don't think they're going to finish first or second, but I do think they can get into that sixth, maybe fifth range. So I'll go higher for the Sooners, but I can understand the eighth. I can understand the eighth-place prediction.

Jenni: I sort of thought in the six to eight range in the preseason poll. I don't know what your expectations of the SEC preseason poll, BT, but I figured six to eight was kind of where they would be. Obviously the biggest question for the Sooners is not a good question to have in the SEC, that being the lines of scrimmage. So can they navigate that seeming uncertainty? How will it look? We don't know. So I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish anywhere from six to eight, but I'm with you BT. I think they've got enough talent. I think they are trending in the right direction. So I like them to finish higher than eighth, but I don't have pie-in-the-sky expectations for them. I don't think they're going to be contending to go to the SEC championship game. I know that's not what Sooner fans want to hear. They want to know they're going to be in contention for those sorts of big prizes every year. Just not sure that's going to happen this year. 

But speaking of who wins the leagues, who do you think wins these two, the SEC and the Big 12? Sounds like we got OSU in the title game, but who do you think gets there and wins the whole thing in the Big 12?

Berry: I think I'm going to pick Kansas State in the Big 12. They're just remarkably consistent. Could be Utah. Could be OSU. Could be KU. But Chris Klieman has won it before. He won it two years ago when the Sooners and Longhorns were in the league. He likes his quarterback. Ohio State's trotting out a quarterback that Kansas State said, ‘We don't really need you anymore.’ So they must really like Avery Johnson in Manhattan. I know they like Avery Johnson. They don't have the offensive line they had a year ago, but Chris Klieman is really good at putting that back together. So I'll probably take the Wildcats. 

But it's a wide open league. The thing I like about the Big 12 is somebody could come from far out of the pack. West Virginia, Central Florida, Texas Tech, all kinds of people could make a splash that's not even on the radar. It's going to be a wild and crazy league and frankly, all kinds of nuances in a 16-team league in which every school is only playing 53 % of its fellow conference members. There are things we haven't even considered on that. I don't know what they are. If I did know, I would have considered them. So, it's going to be an adventure and a discovery for us, for the players, the coaches every week.

Jenni: I agree with that. I think I will probably go with OSU and Utah, the teams that are starting Big 12 play against each other in Stillwater to be the teams in the championship game. And I don't know, BT, I just think after OSU lost to Texas last year, I think they're motivated to fix that. I think they want to go and not just get to the title game, but win it. 

Now, it'd be a change to recent trends if OSU got back. We haven't seen a repeat team get to the Big 12 title game in quite some time with the parity in the Big 12. So if they did get back, it would sort of go against the norm. But I think I'm going to pick the Cowboys to win the Big 12, which would put them in a one through four seeding in the College Football Playoff, which we aren't even going to talk college football playoff today. Maybe we can do a bigger picture next week. But I do think the Cowboys have a team that can win this whole thing in the Big 12. And if they can navigate through what … is a tough schedule, it’s a tough schedule early in the Big 12 and it's got some things late that could be interesting depending on … they play Colorado at the end. What's Colorado going to be like? We don't know. Are they an improved team or do they nosedive like they did last year? Lots of questions about games along the way that we don't have answers to. So I think that remains to be seen. 

Then the SEC … who gets there? Who wins it in the SEC?

Berry: Well, I like Georgia. Georgia is the monster. Georgia's the new Alabama. Georgia was probably the nation's best team last year. Michigan got a big break when Alabama knocked off Georgia in the SEC title game, but Georgia's won two of the last three national titles. Three out of the last four would not be surprising. So Georgia is my pick, and if Alabama can stay on Georgia's level, power to Karen DeBoer. I just don't know if the Tide can do that in the post Nick Saban era.

But, you know, the Sooners are lucky that one Godzilla has been vanquished. Perhaps the other one has not. King Kong is still Georgia. So I'm picking the Bulldogs.

Jenni: Yeah, I like Georgia to win the SEC as well. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas play them in the SEC championship game. I think Texas has got a really good team. And, you know, if those two obviously get to the SEC title game, I could see whoever doesn't win being probably the five seed in the playoffs. So it wouldn't be surprising to see either Georgia or Texas host one of those first-round games in the playoff. What a scene that would be either down in Athens or in Austin.

But yeah, Georgia's hard to pick against. They've got the consistency right now, just the level of excellence that they've had over the last few years. It's just hard to see them not getting to the title game. And again, sort of the same thing with what I said about OSU wanting to fix what happened in the Big 12 title game last year. I suspect Georgia wants to fix what happened in the SEC title game last year as well.

All right, let's talk about these teams, BT. Let's start with OU and do some individual player predictions to start with. Who's your most valuable player on this OU team?

Berry: Well, I think it's Jackson Arnold. It usually is for the quarterback. This is a strange Oklahoma quarterback situation with Dillon Gabriel still playing but doing it for Oregon. All-Big 12 last year, and a little bit like the Kansas State story. It wasn't like he was itching to leave, didn't seem like. Just sort of decreed that way. So a lot of pressure on Jackson Arnold.

He appears to be the total package, but he's also unproven and he's played a game and a half that matters for the Sooners and did OK. Was fine and solid at Brigham Young for a half, and was really good for most of the Alamo Bowl, except for those dang turnovers, four turnovers. So you can't do that and keep the job much less win ball games. So, Sooners have to have him playing well. He's the MVP, I think. And he's not the best player, but I think he's probably their most valuable player.

Jenni: I tend to agree. I think he's going to be huge and obviously how he navigates being a first-year starter in the SEC with a unproven offensive line … lots on his shoulders. 

I think you and I agree the best player on this team is Billy Bowman. Unless you've changed your mind on that.

Berry: Yep, I'd agree. I'd agree. (Danny) Stutsman would be a good pick too, but Billy Bowman, all around … I mean, he's an All-American, for crying out loud. OU's first in four years.

Jenni: So, we can agree the best is Billy Bowman, but my second MVP behind Jackson Arnold, I think might be Stutsman because with that defense and that defensive line, maybe trotting out some young guys, especially in the SEC, I think having a guy at linebacker who can direct, who can make plays, who can really be an anchor for that defense is going to be absolutely critical. So Stutsman holds a really important role on this team as well. But yeah, what Jackson Arnold does is gonna be so crucial to what happens to OU's fortunes in the SEC. I think he has to be the MVP. What he does will be so indicative of how this season goes for the Sooners. 

What about newcomers, Berry? They've got a bunch, whether freshmen or transfers. Who plays the biggest role among the newcomers?

Berry: I think I'll go with Deion Burks, the slot receiver from Purdue. He’s certainly heralded that way. You know, the Sooners only had three representatives on the All-SEC team, first, second, third team. That's like 75 guys. Maybe more than that. Might be 85. But Deion Burks made it. And for a newcomer to get votes in a new conference coming from a completely different conference, I think he's widely respected and he's clearly a threat. Saw him excel in the spring game and gives the Sooners a speed element out of the slot that they really haven't had for a while. So I think Seth Littrell can do some things with that, and I expect Deion Burks to have a big year. 

Jenni: I think having a dynamic playmaker like him in the receiver group, I mean, they've got some other guys that are good, but he just looks like speed wise, he's gonna be a different level guy and having those kinds of playmakers’ home-run abilities I think is gonna be really important for Jackson Arnold to have those kinds of guys to get the ball to and sort of relieve some of the pressure on that offensive line. 

But I'm interested to see some of these freshmen defensive linemen we've heard so much about. Whether it's David Stone or Jayden Jackson, these guys as freshmen, you don't expect a lot of freshmen, true freshmen to play on either line of scrimmage. But these are guys that I wouldn't be surprised to see them play a pretty significant role. So what does David Stone do? You know, one of the top recruits in the whole country, a guy that could be playing at Georgia, could be playing at Alabama right now if he wanted. I definitely am interested to see what he does and whether he could be an even bigger impact on this team than maybe a transfer. That would be interesting in today's day and age to have a newcomer who's a freshman be a bigger impact player than a transfer. 

What about most important game, BT? I mean, we've got all sorts of metrics for biggest game, most important game, but what stands out to you as the game on the Sooner schedule that could really make a difference in how this season goes?

Berry: Well, when you're playing six conference games against teams projected in the top 15, you got a lot of options. This is like a Cheesecake Factory menu. You just don't know where to start. You just got to turn the page and see what's next. But I would say I'm going to throw out a prediction: I'm going to say Missouri. Because Missouri is sort of in the middle. The Sooners close with the back to back, Alabama in Norman, then at LSU. If the Sooners are in pretty good shape, those are massive. They have the three conference first, home against Tennessee, at Auburn, Texas in Dallas. You know, if you get through the first two, the Red River is massive. If you just beat Tennessee, you just feel better because you knocked off one of the people picked ahead of you.

But right there in the middle is that game at Missouri in early November. And if Oklahoma can get to Missouri with, I think they've got nine games at that point. So let's say they’re 7-2, two losses going into Columbia. You know what? You go up there and win, you set up the home stretch. You're … probably not in the running for the SEC title game, but definitely in the running for a College Football Playoff berth. Missouri is going to have a good record. They're likely to be highly ranked. Their schedule is blah. The Tigers, if they play terrible, they’re going to only have two losses probably also. So, I think that's going to be a big showdown. 

You know, if the Sooners go to that game 5-4 or something, then all bets are off, and frankly, there's not any big games if the Sooners have that kind of record. So I like Missouri as being a pivotal game in this season.

Jenni: That's a big one because it does feel like … I don't know about Alabama. I don't know about going to LSU. Those seem like, the Sooners will be the underdog in those games, no matter what their record is at that point. But I'm to go with that game at Auburn. It's early in the season, but I think that first road game, obviously it's not one of the highly regarded teams right now, Auburn, at the top of the SEC. But Jordan-Hare Stadium, a place that's tough to go play. It’ll be the Sooners' first SEC road game. I think that one's going to be really big to the Sooners' psyche. If they go in there and win and play well, even if they've lost to Tennessee the week before, I think that sets up to make them at least feel like they are in a good spot. So I think that game at Auburn, I just think it sets up so much for the season and could really be pivotal to the kind of record that the Sooners have. We'll get to records in a minute.

But let's turn to OSU before we do get there. Let's talk about some player predictions for the Cowboys. Who's your MVP up in Stillwater?

Berry: I’m going to say Ollie Gordon. I mean, I don't know why it wouldn't be. Most offenses in America are transfixed on the quarterback or build around the quarterback, but not necessarily in Stillwater. They went back to their Tailback U roots last October or late September, and he turned into the Dock Walker winner, first-team All-American, college superstar.

And I think Mike Gundy thinks that's just fine in terms of running the ball and relying on that kind of offense and production. Now it's going to be more difficult this year. We saw down the stretch, Central Florida did it. Other teams did it. They're not going to let Ollie run wild, and Alan Bowman and the receiving corps are going to have to make plays in the aerial game, but … Ollie Gordon and the Cowboys are going to need Ollie to be enough of a threat, even against an eight-man line that that eight-man line remains eight and gives Alan Bowman a lot more throwing lanes. So Ollie Gordon's the man in Stillwater for this 2024 season.

Jenni: I got nothing to argue with there. I think he is the most valuable and I think he's also their best player, Berry. I mean, I think he's a guy that this is probably his last go in Stillwater. Would not be surprised to see him head to the NFL after this season. We know running backs only have a limited number of carries in their legs and their knees and all of that. So unless something dramatic changes, I just don't see Ollie Gordon playing a 2025 season in Stillwater. So I definitely think he's the main piece, he's the main cog for the Cowboys in 2024. 

What about this, and this is a tricky one, Berry, because the Cowboys have so many guys returning: who's the best newcomer on the team up in Stillwater?

Berry: Lord have mercy. I have no idea. I actually went with Isaia Glass, the guard from Arizona State, who is a nice offensive lineman. And frankly, you know, during the spring down the stretch, I was hearing he's actually a good candidate to start. And when you look at an offensive line that returned everybody, returned like six guys, most of them sixth-year guys, it's an offensive line that averages 23 years of age. It’s older the OJ Simpson Buffalo Bills offensive line when he rushed for 2,000 yards 50 years ago. So it's an incredible collection of veterans on that offensive line, but it looks like Isaia Glass may puncture the wall and crack the starting lineup there. And if he does, that's going to be a great sign for him that he could start ahead of whoever, whether it's Cole Birmingham or Jason Brooks or whoever it might be. But I'm going to go with Isaia Glass, but the pickings are slim because this is such a veteran group. This is not something we wouldn't have seen 40 years ago, much less in this transfer portal age and this early entry age and all those things. For OSU to have 18 starters returning and this much veteran leadership and this much experience, it’s a remarkable roster for the Cowboys in 2024.

Jenni: Yeah, it really is. I'm going to go sort of on the squishy side of answering this question, which it's my show. I can do whatever I want. But I'm going to say Justin Wright, Berry. He's not a newcomer to the team necessarily. He was a Cowboy a year ago, but a transfer from Tulsa who got hurt, who played very limited snaps last year, appeared in two games, was a guy that I think going into the season before he got hurt, everybody thought, ‘Well, this guy's going to play a bunch. He's going to be huge.’ Obviously he gets hurt. Nick Martin steps in and we know what Nick Martin became for the Cowboy defense. But Justin Wright is back healthy. It will be interesting to see with Xavier Benson gone and needing to have multiple linebackers, you can't just play with three, you gotta have extra guys. So I think he's a guy that could be really important and that veteran type of guy in the defense. Had a year to really learn, sink his teeth into things. So I'm going with Justin Wright.

OK, what about biggest game, Berry? What's the most important game on the Cowboys' schedule?

Berry: I think it's the early one, Utah. I mean, you could go the next week also, but Utah comes to OSU on September 21, Big 12 opener for both schools. Now Utah plays Baylor, but that's not a conference game. Don't ask me details. Just trust me. It's a scheduled from previous. They're keeping it. It's not counting in the standings.

That's a huge game (at OSU) for Utah. Huge game for OSU. The winner gets the leg up on everybody, and it's the introduction for the Utes into the conference. It's the introduction for the Cowboys to the Utes. There's a decent chance that it could be a Big Noon Kickoff. If Fox has that game, I haven't heard, I’m trying to find out, but it's going to be one of the three biggest games in the nation. If the script goes to form, early in the year, massive game. If OSU wins that game, they take the lead in the horse race for the Big 12 title game. And Cameron Rising back for Utah. Kyle Whittingham, Mike Gundy, the longest tenured coaches, this side of Kirk Ferentz. Lots to love about this game. Fabulous matchup. Fired up for OSU-Utah.

Jenni: I think that's going to be huge. But that K-State game to me is, it's big for a lot of reasons, obviously, early in the season. Two teams that are contending for the title. But I think that road aspect of it, the fact that last time OSU was in Manhattan, Berry, ugh, did not play well, did not show themselves well. So I think going to Manhattan, playing well, that'll be really their first true road game. They got to go to Tulsa in the non-conference, but I have to think that's going to be a heavily Cowboy crowd up in Tulsa. So that first road game, I think that's going to be really, really big no matter what happens against Utah. But you know, if you beat Utah, it becomes even bigger for sort of establishing yourself at the top of the conference. If you lose to Utah, boy, you got to go steal one on the road. So I think that K-State game, just considering recent history and what it could mean for the conference race this year, I think that's gonna be big for the Cowboys. 

All right, before we get out of here, records. What do you got? Let's start with OU. What's the Sooners record this season?

Berry: They got a really good team, and they got a brutal schedule. They got six games that … well, count in Auburn, they'd have seven, but let's go with six games that will make or break the season. I'm going to give them a .500 record in those games. So I'm going to go with 9-3, and it'll be an excellent year. I don't think 9-3 gets OU into the playoff, but I do think it gets them into the discussion. If they can go 9-3, they will at least be alive for talking about for the committee going into that final meeting. So I'm going go 9-3 Sooners. That would be a very good year kicking it off in the SEC.

Jenni: I'm not quite as bullish on the Sooners as you are. I think 8-4 is where I'm landing on the Sooners. But, you know, there's obviously so many toss up games. We've hit on the fact that obviously there seem to be some really tough games, whether it's Alabama coming in or having to go to Death Valley for that LSU game at the end of the year. We just don't know what Alabama looks like under Karen DeBoer. We haven't seen it yet. We don't know where LSU is gonna be. If it's a night game, I have to think they'll be fired up regardless of how good or bad their season's gone, but we don't know quite how those games are gonna play out. And the Sooners … I just have so many questions about offensive line, defensive line. If they were a little more settled at those two areas, I'd probably go higher than 8-4, but I feel like 8-4 is probably a sweet spot for this team and would not be a bad year. I think that would be a very good year. Eight or nine wins. First year in the SEC. I have to think that's a really positive for Oklahoma. They may not see it that way. I get it, I get it. But I still think 8-4, not a bad year for the Sooners. 

What about the Cowboys, Berry? Where you got them as far as record?

Berry: Well, I got the Cowboys at 10-2. They get a little bit of a break on the schedule. Everybody did. It's a little bit of an equitable schedule, but they don't play Kansas and they don't play Arizona. They do play as we talked about Utah and K-State. So, they skipped Central Florida. And I think that's good because I think the Knights are going to be a surprise team. So I like the schedule for OSU. Got Arkansas coming in early. Think that's a big confidence booster, beat an SEC team in an historic type game. So, I think it's going to be a good year for the Cowboys, 10-2, and we'll see if that gets them to Arlington. I tend to think it will, but I'm not sure, but I think it could. So, I think another double-digit win season for Mike Gundy.

Jenni: Yeah, 10-2 is my number as well for the Cowboys. Now, I think that we expect the big games at the start of the conference season, but this league is so funky, Berry. Games that we don't think are gonna be big or important or swing games in a schedule could be. That's just the way the Big 12 has been. So, you know, while you're right, they don't play Kansas, they don't play Arizona, and we think those are teams that are gonna be in the mix. I think there's gonna be a surprise team. I don't know who it's gonna be. You mentioned a few earlier. Could it be Texas Tech? Could it be West Virginia? I have no idea. And I don't know if anybody can say. That's just the nature of the way the Big 12 has run. So I wouldn't be surprised if there's a game along the way that ends up being much more consequential than we think. But I do like 10-2. I think that's a solid number for the Cowboys. Wouldn't be surprised to see 11-1 quite honestly. That may scare some Cowboy fans who don't want expectations to go through the roof. But I think that this is a team with the talent they have and the experience they have, it’s a rare mix in today's college football era. It's just so hard to have this many guys coming back that have played together. I think that could pay some real dividends for the Cowboys. 

All right, Berry, before we let you get out of here, tell people what you got coming up in the Tulsa World.

Berry: Well, you know, we got the media days, the local media days at OU and OSU this weekend. But I'll be writing a lot of college football this week, including some historic stuff about the Sooners’ underdog status. We've been talking about it. This incredible schedule, picked eighth in the SEC and how many games are they going to be underdogs. It's phenomenal just how daunting this task is for OU in year No. 1. Historically, they've never seen anything like it. It's not just an SEC thing. It’s what the SEC did to welcome the Sooners into the league thing.

Jenni: If people want to find your work, TulsaWorld com, they can find it all there.